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Insights > On Global Markets > An Oracle or an Obstacle?

An Oracle or an Obstacle?

On Global Markets, 18 September 2026.
Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets, Chicago Booth
Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets, Chicago Booth

The Fed hiked, as three in four of the FT-Booth panel expected. The real story is the 10-year Treasury yield, now close to 5%.

The Fed chair treats the bond market as an oracle, a real-time signal; the Treasury treats it as an obstacle, and is using buybacks to lean on yields. 78% of surveyed macroeconomists expect the 10-year above 5% a year from now.

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Kent A. Clark Center for Global MarketsUniversity of Chicago Booth School of Business

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